Roy Schestowitz wrote:
> TV will be shut in 10 years, says Bill Gates
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Television as we know it today will become obsolete in the
> | next 10 years, said Microsoft founder Bill Gates.
> `----
> http://bink.nu/Article8798.bink
This is not necessarily such a profound prognostication.
Look back to 1997, 1987, 1977, 1967, and 1957.
In 1957, only a few people on the block had a television. For popular
programs and movies, people from 3 or 4 households would watch. Since
there were only 3 televisions stations in most parts of the country, it
was not frequent occurance. My familiy had one of the first
televisions, and we would often have 3-4 families packed into the
living room, so that we could all watch a television show. Ed
Sullivan, Jack Benny, George Burns and Gracie Allen, and Milton Berle
were all shown live, on cheap sets with very simple environments. Some
of the shows were filmed, but most were live, meaning they were lost
forever.
By 1967, we had color television, and we had 4-5 channels, including
"Educational" television. We could see the vietnam war in living
color, with blood and gore in it's unbridled core. We could see
wounded soldiers being carried out on litters, with their guts looking
like hamburger, and Viet Cong prisoners being executed with a pistol
shot to the back of the head, but we couldn't see Lucy and Desi sharing
a bed.
In 1977, we had cable, which gave us a choice of about 10 channels, and
some cities had UHF channels as the FCC began to grant more licenses.
The 10 channels were mostly duplicates of the network channels, or
classic movies interrupted by 10 minute infomercials for "modular
housing", but for an extra $20/month, you could get 1 HBO channel. The
big innovation was the VCR, which let you capture a program and play it
back later. But the VCR was very new, and very few people had them.
In 1987, we had as many as 25 channels, including new programming such
as MTV, and this could be supplemented with the, now common VCR, the
VCRs even had complex timers which allowed users to tape multiple
programs on multiple channels, for as many as 14 programs. I used it
to tape Saturday Morning cartoons, which meant the kids didn't have to
wake up at 6 o'dark to watch their favorite cartoons. By keeping 7
weeks worth of cartoons, I could keep them entertained with "parent
controlled" programs every day. Each tape held 6 hours of programming.
by 1997, we had almost 40 channels, they were still analog, but you
could also get "pay-per-view" channels. You would find out what movies
were going to start, when they were going to start, and press the
"order" button about 10 minutes before the movie started. The cable
box would dial-in to the cable company, who would download the
decryption key, allowing you to view the channel for the duration of
the movie.
And here we are in 2007, with over 700 available channels, pay-per-view
movies can be ordered "on-demand" and if you pay for HBO and a few
dollars extra, you can watch any movie or popular series episode of the
previous or current season, whenever it's convenient for you. You can
combine this with a TIVO box that can record up to 100 movies, and can
be programmed to record movies any time during the day or night. This
allows networks and cable channels to sell advertizing and content for
programs delivered during odd hours of the day or night. We also have
"High Definition" TV, which makes it possible to publish readable
content as well as artistic details that would normally get mangled by
the lower resolution of NTSC or PAL video. It's also Digital signals,
which means that a single channel can be multiplexed, content can be
compressed, and the available bandwidth can be used to handle high
speed internet traffic. Since both the traffic and the programming can
be routed independently, each "channel" can be packed very efficiently.
By 2017, it will probably be possible to watch any episode of any TV
series ever taped or filmed, any movie ever produced, and videos
provided as marketing materials to prospective customers searching for
specific information. You will be able to search for programs on a
particular topic, and receive advertizing consistent with the product.
This is what made YouTube such a big buy. Google was thinking down the
road 5-10 years, a luxury that most CEOs don't have.
> Previously:
> The End of Auto Accidents?
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | According to Bill Gates, there will be no more car
> | accidents within 10 years. This is a direct statement
> | from the software giant himself.
> `----
> http://internetbusinessdaily.net/?p=29
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060316/ap_on_hi_te/microsoft_gates
There are already mechanisms which allow trucks to travel far more
safely in tightly spaced convoys using laser guided systems. The pilot
systems use a square painted on the back panel of an 18 wheeler. The
beam is focused on the box, and a video image detects changes in size
and shifts to the right and left, allowing the trucks "auto-pilot" to
detect and "follow" the truck in front of it, and maintain a safe
following distance, even if the truck in front comes to a complete
stop. The driver must still be at the wheel, but it reduces driver
fatigue and improves fuel economy.
There are also systems that can automatically apply the brakes when a
sonar or radar or laser indicates that the car is too close to an
approaching object. In some cases, it can stop the gas and apply the
brakes automatically.
Again, lets' go back over 50 years.
In 1957, cars didn't have seat belts at all, they had big engines, they
were heavy, and there were no safety features. You even had to set the
choke to get it to start correctly. There was no air conditioner, and
the winshield wipers would stop when you hit the gas.
In 1967 muscle cars were very popular, they guzzled gas like it was
water, but gas was cheap and it wasn't such a big deal to just go out
for a long drive in the country. The cars had lap belts. They also
had air conditioning.
In 1977, economy cars were just catching on, the Honda Civic was "a
motercycle engine in a tfour-wheeler". Which wasn't too far off. Many
motorcycles had bigger engines that the civic, but the light weight
meant that it got around almost as well as the big cars. And since gas
had almost quadrupled in price in less than 3 years, having a Civic was
a good move. The cars had lap and shoulder belts, and could have a 5
mph "bump" with no damage.
In 1987, cars were much safer, and many had cruise control. They had
lap-belts and shoulder belts, and the car would sound alarms if you
didn't fastent them. The kids had to sit in car seats, and they were
required to protect the passenger in high speed crashes.
In 1997, cars had air-bags, they were bigger, but used less gas that
the economy cars, because they used computer controlled fuel injection
and computer controlled ignition. The cars had to survive high speed
crash tests, and had anti-lock braking.
As we approach 2007, we see hybrid cars, side air bags, antilock brakes
are standard, even huge sport utility vehicles are more fuel efficient
than many midsized cars of only 20 years ago.
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates sketched out a vision for the future
> | Wednesday in which a cell phone will become a "digital wallet," able
> | to receive e-mail and even scan business cards, while computers and
> | TVs will merge.
> `----
>
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060316/tc_nm/microsoft_gates_dc
Gates just can't stand the thought that an OLPC computer could be built
for $100. Yet we already see video display units for $50, and DVD
players for as little as $200.
Whether he likes it or not, the small, light laptop, powered by Linux,
is already very close to becoming a reality.
The merger of computer and television is yesterday's news. TiVO, and
HDTV and Video On Demand have already blended these technologies
brilliantly. The irony is that Microsoft was so busy trying to get the
monopoly on computers, that he missed the fact that Linux completely
captured all three markets.
Gates wants to think that he is still on the front of technology, but
he has been falling behind for almost 10 years now, because people
don't trust Microsoft anymore. The big innovations like 64 bit
computers, FireGL real-time 3D graphics, digital video, and numerous
internet appliances have all gone to Linux, not Microsoft. Microsoft
is like the flea on the tail of the dog, who thinks he's making the
tail wag the dog.
Even multimedia and digital multimedia was well established in UNIX,
Linux, and BSD technologies LONG before Microsoft even thought about
getting involved. MPEG, MPEG-2, and MP3 were all implemented in Linux,
because they were "open" standards established by standards bodies such
as the IEEE and the MPAA and other public and government standards
organizations.
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Chairman and Chief Software Architect Bill Gates on Wednesday mocked a
> | $100 laptop computer for developing countries being developed with the
> | backing of rival Google Inc. at the Massachusetts Institute of
> | Technology.
> `----
> Gates thinks that African children should use Microsoft smartphones and
> UMPC's (as per his suggestion in the interview).
Cell phone technology is certainly good in concept, but in parts of the
country where power lines are scarce, and bandwith can't be limited,
the cell technology has to be more like WI-FI and effecient
transmitters powered by solar panels and batteries. Appliances that
can be put in the middle of deserts and the tops of mountains is
necessary. Similar technology has been used in India, China, and South
America, all of which have much faster performance, and use Linux
powered Appliances. Some have ranges of several miles, at bandwidths
approaching 100Mhz net throughput.
Cell phones have a typical range of less than a mile, usually get
relayed to traditional telephone wires or fiber, and typically have a
"modem" bandwidth of about 140 bytes per second. Even the "digital"
services is usually limited to 56 kbits/second. about 5000 bytes per
second. Not bad for usenet news, not so good for modern web sites.
> Here's a post from alt.spam, dated January 2004.
> Gates Forecasts Final Death of Spam Within 2 Years
>
> http://tinyurl.com/vkukb
>
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.spam/browse_frm/thread/a9f80ddf64aeb03c/895a357d47daa1f0?lnk=st
Gates has been promising the end of viruses and malware since MS-DOS
2.0. Ironically, much of this "Malware" was actually Gates' doing.
Minor changes to hardware, software, and even deliberate changes often
sabotaged Microsoft's competitors. In addition, copy-protection
schemes depended on such things as timing loops, hardware anomolies,
and information derived from the chip. In the early days, the malware
was often just bad planning, but when Microsoft introduced Multiplan,
they started deliberatly undermining Lotus 1-2-3, their biggest
competitor. MS-DOS 3.0 picked up viruses that wrote into the boot
track and infected any other floppy disk that wasn't write protected
when it was accessed.
Microsoft has used back doors for monitoring piracy, for monitoring
competition, and for monitoring users' activities to help them identify
new markets. They have one of the most advanced and extensive
intelligence and market research mechanisms in the world, and it spans
the world.
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